I run my code on Emacs as nature intended

this is easily explained by "database migrations are incredibly difficult and very risky"

Nothing stopping you from doing that in a post-LLM world

"Annualized revenue" is a projection, and is known to be a projection.

The problem is, annualized revenue doesn’t work when your income has a 3 standard of deviation month to month. It is standard for other fields/businesses but these tend to have stable month to month revenue.

It’s not deviating up and down. It’s deviating upward. It is necessarily going to wildly overstate the previous 12 months’ revenue while wildly understating the next 12 months’ revenue. There is no way to describe exponential growth in a single number that doesn’t do this. This is why adults with a brain look at the series.

I would venture that's it's the whole reason they use it. because it doesn't work.

If anything, it’s a very conservative estimate. Short of a major turn of events it seems very unlikely Anthropic’s revenue growth is going to slow to zero.

Interesting. I’m going to start describing my “annualized impact” in my performance self-reviews in terms of all the things I project that I’ll do.

Go for it. Be aware of what happens to your stock when expectations you set do not materialize.

Dunno about that, somehow Tesla stock doing pretty well despite setting a lot of expectations that haven't materialized.

Investors don't want results anyway, they want a dream. Until the IPO which is the final boss stage where you are selling forward looking profits

Yes but my mother-in-law doesn't understand it, so it's a lie.

LLMs did not invent clickbaity headlines. Kinda odd that people think it did

LLMs have no conception of time, unless you explicitly feed in timestamps to the context

It doesn't stop LLMs provide "this feature set will require 4 months to finish" (and then finishing it one hour)

Sorry yeah, I meant to say LLMs have no concept of time, so time estimates they give are almost always hallucinations

Scotty from Star Trek does approve!

Drawing vector graphics.

Image generators can make reasonable-looking raster images. LLMs are good at coding. But drawing SVGs sits at the worst of both worlds.

Drawing SVGs via LLMs is mid, but how about converting raster images to SVGs? That sounds like something that shouldn't be too hard

I thought they'd be good at vectorising raster image, but no.

The truly hard part is putting them to sleep

At 8pm, and then 10pm, then 10:30pm, then 12am, then 2am, then 3:30am, then 5am.

As an expectant first time parent, this is the bit that I'm bracing for most.

Relax: it only lasts a few months. Rarely more than 60 or 70.

It’s rough at first but you will learn the baby’s rhythms and preferences. If you track their sleep and wake up times (I did it the old fashioned way in a notebook) you’ll see a pattern emerge pretty quickly, and then it gets easier because you will figure out how to work with it.

Every baby is different so most of the advice you find won’t work, but if you try enough things you’ll eventually find something that works consistently. Or you might just luck out and get a good sleeper.

The big tip I have for you is to understand wake windows. Babies can get too tired to sleep(!) so you need to make sure to put them to sleep roughly 1-1.5 hours after they last wake up.

Highly recommend getting a sleep tracker app.

Follow a routine every day. I posted elsewhere in this thread what worked for us. It was tough when they were infants because neither of ours slept through night till about 2. The routine saved us.

try co-sleeping, and also a comfortable baby-carrier that allows you to carry the baby around while keeping your hands free so you can work. the most difficult from babies not sleeping is that they are not supposed to sleep alone. see attachment theory. the other advice, if you can follow it, is to sleep yourself every time the baby sleeps. again, co-sleeping makes that easier.

I dunno, we found that our kid slept slightly better moved to his own room at 5 or 6 months old. Although that meant maybe 4 wakings rather than 5. Now he's nearly three years old and sleeps solidly for 10 or 11 hours. My guess is that food and metabolism have a big part to play.

My mutant power is the ability to put babies to sleep. Before I had my own I'd put other people's kids babies to sleep easy peasy. It's something I've been able to do since I was a teenager.

Or waking them up for school... (A correlated problem)

I use cloth diapers, but modern disposable diapers can hold a lot, a lot of pee. Significantly more than any cloth diapers can. This means a lot less blowouts with disposables.

Haha, we got second-hand cloth diapers. Figured it can't be worse than what our little one is going to do to them!