It's so sad to see so many HN and Redditors so intent on their "upwardly mobile", morally relative dreams
that they fail to take account of the totalitarian state they have come to live in. You will NOT be alright, jack.
Listen. As of September 2012, the AppForThat, Startup, bubble is just about over. I say this as someone who warned others of the
dotcom and real estate bubbles. If you want to think of it as a "technical", or chartreading thing, fine. The bottom line
is: GET OUT NOW, the shit is about to hit the fan. Yeah, I know you don't want to hear it. Sorry to bear bad news.
If you haven't heard of it, this is the Fourth Turning. (Startpage.com it). If you think life is going to go on as as usual, think again.
Get ready. Hunker down. This is for real. Don't trust the government.
Fascinating. The last "Fourth Turning" was roughly 1925-1945, with the crises of the stock market crash, Great Depression, and World War 2.
It also was the formation of the New Deal, the Allied victory, the GI Bill of Rights (free higher education for vets), the rise of the US as a global superpower.
Further, it was followed by the "First Turning", from 1945-1965, which was the post-war boom.
A crisis can lead to a lot of good.
I'm not quite sure what this has to do with trusting the government - I think you may be reading far too much into Strauss-Howe to coincide with your own political beliefs. The US is not a totalitarian state, nor is Europe (though disclaimer, I'm in Canada). One of my parents did live in a totalitarian state - it was not like this, by any stretch.
We do exist in a time of crisis, financially, and in terms of global political leadership. In the US, the Republicans have become radicals, not conservatives, while the Democrats can't seem to be focused or unified on anything. In Europe, the leaders can't seem to accept the Euro will destroy their economies if they don't either fix their central bank or move to a more unified fiscal arrangement. In China, the government artificially keeps their currency low to foster growth that hides the fragility of the kleptocracy at the state and local levels of government. I could go on.
These are crises, but they are also opportunities to fix problems that seem intractable today. I do not think anyone can foresee the outcomes, I suspect it will be not hewing to any particular ideology, but rather a mix of pragmatic approaches that "just work".
> Among quants there is a saying that goes “don’t torture the data until it talks”, which is another way of saying don’t over-fit the data. While Howe & Strauss’ analysis is very intriguing, I find many disturbing signs of data fitting that make me uncomfortable.
> William Strauss and Neil Howe think society turns on a repeating set of four 20-year cycles and try to predict the future based on this.
[snip]
> According to the authors (writing in 1997), the U.S. was in an "unraveling" in the 1990s and due for another crisis in the 2000s-2010s, which will be followed once the crisis is resolved by a new "high" of economic liberalism and social conservatism a-la the 1950s.
It's interesting how all these cycle-meisters (a subset of woo-meisters or just plain frauds) always say that the crisis is near. Always. Their magical cycle theories never predict a distant crisis.
Onwards:
> The generations themselves are arbitrary constructs. They have an age range of about 20 years each, but what gives somebody born in 1965 (a Generation Xer) more in common with a Generation Xer born in 1980 rather than a Baby Boomer born in 1961?
It's crap. It's one of many cycle theories that gets promoted every so often, and it's based on torturing the data that isn't ignored entirely with huge amounts of retrospective predictions (predicting the past, so much easier than predicting the future), just like the others.
No, they are not "kooks", nor am I, and far from unintentionally making the reference I am pointing it out.
It is a perfectly rational phenomenon that history depends on generational cycles.
No, there is no magic claimed, or involved, and this "all these cycle-meisters (a subset of woo-meisters or just plain frauds) always say that the crisis is near. Always. Their magical cycle theories never predict a distant crisis" is pure, unfounded name-calling.
It is obvious that you have not given even a cursory reading of S & H's writing before concluding "it's crap".
If generations are "arbitrary constructs" then I take it you do not think "boomer" means anything? Welcome to the real world.
> It is a perfectly rational phenomenon that history depends on generational cycles.
Then why isn't it taught in mainstream history courses?
> If generations are "arbitrary constructs" then I take it you do not think "boomer" means anything?
Not really, no. To begin with, you'll never find a full agreement on when that generation (or any other) begins and ends.
> this "all these cycle-meisters (a subset of woo-meisters or just plain frauds) always say that the crisis is near. Always. Their magical cycle theories never predict a distant crisis" is pure, unfounded name-calling.
Actually, it's a place where you could rebut me with solid evidence that disproves my statement, if you actually had such evidence.
Instead, how about this: What predictions did Strauss and Howe make that have actually come true?
Burden of proof applies here- you can't tell him that something is true then refuse to provide evidence for it. Should be pretty simple to give a few examples, no?
No, really. I was expecting downvotes and I see I'm getting them. I understand people don't want to hear this. Why am I saying this then? I have nothing to gain.
Listen. As of September 2012, the AppForThat, Startup, bubble is just about over. I say this as someone who warned others of the dotcom and real estate bubbles. If you want to think of it as a "technical", or chartreading thing, fine. The bottom line is: GET OUT NOW, the shit is about to hit the fan. Yeah, I know you don't want to hear it. Sorry to bear bad news.
If you haven't heard of it, this is the Fourth Turning. (Startpage.com it). If you think life is going to go on as as usual, think again.
Get ready. Hunker down. This is for real. Don't trust the government.